an iraq warning

Saudi Arabia first warned Washington that a US attack on Iraq could lead to chaos when VP Dick Cheney met with the then Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz on the eve of invasion, says a Saudi diplomat in Washington.

Now Abdullah is king, and his aides fear Iraq will become a "Bosnia-like conflict" or a regional cold war, pitting Shiite Iran against Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states, says the diplomat, who demanded anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. He says Riyadh has made clear to Washington that if the United States withdraws and Iraq collapses, the Saudi's would be "forced" to protect Sunnis from persecution, leading to the "de facto partition" of Iraq, with Iran controlling the other half.

It's not clear how widely held this view is in Saudi circles. The resignation of Saudi Ambassador Prince Turki Al-Faisal last week raised speculation about a split over how to deal with the US in Iraq. US analysts say Saudi intervention would likely be financial, working with Sunni neighbors Jordan and Egypt to provide weapons and training. Not that they're spoiling for war. "The Saudis are terrified and want us to stay there as long as possible, to keep the lid on the kettle," says Wayne White, a former deputy director of the State Department's Near Eastern intelligence office.

-Stephen Glain
-Newsweek (12/25/06 - 01/01/07)